Chinese President Xi Jinping is considering his options as we enter the New Year. With President Joe Biden’s time in office dwindling, Xi may see this as an opportune moment to reclaim Taiwan. The intricate calculations behind China’s actions and its anticipation of how the U.S. will respond are encapsulated by Harvard government professor Graham Allison, a respected academic with decades of experience.
Allison, known for his work on the Cuban missile crisis, has become a leading figure in the field of foreign policy analysis. His 2017 book, “Destined for War: Can America Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” applies ancient concepts to modern U.S.-China relations, suggesting that war may be inevitable if current trends continue. He emphasizes the importance of accommodating China’s rise to avoid conflict.
Despite some criticisms, Allison’s ideas have gained widespread influence, shaping the conversation around U.S.-China relations. The concept of a Thucydides Trap, warning of the risks of conflict between rising and established powers, has been embraced by policymakers and experts alike. However, some argue that accommodating China’s ascent is the best path forward to prevent war.
Xi Jinping is likely considering these dynamics as he navigates the evolving relationship between China and the U.S. The preference among elites for accommodation with China is evident, and Xi may be looking to seize the moment before a potential shift in U.S. leadership next year. The Biden administration’s approach aligns with Allison’s perspective, prioritizing diplomacy to prevent confrontation.
In conclusion, Xi Jinping must weigh the options carefully as he contemplates the future of China’s relationship with the U.S. The ongoing dialogue around accommodating China’s rise and avoiding conflict could shape the decisions made in the coming year.
