Three key factors amplify the strength of hurricanes. Firstly, as global temperatures rise, so do ocean temperatures. This increase in heat causes water to evaporate, releasing energy that fuels the development of hurricanes. The warmer the ocean water, the more energy a hurricane can harness. This is particularly concerning as tropical Atlantic temperatures continue to remain high, leading up to this year’s hurricane season.
Secondly, as the atmosphere warms, it is able to hold more water vapor, resulting in increased humidity in some regions. Hurricanes thrive in humid conditions, as dry air can hinder their intensity. If a hurricane encounters dry air, it can weaken as a result.
Lastly, hurricanes are negatively impacted by wind shear, which is the difference in speeds and directions of winds at different altitudes. This disruption can weaken a storm by introducing dry air into its core. However, as the world warms, wind shear is decreasing in certain regions, creating ideal conditions for cyclones to form and strengthen.
In the near future, La Niña conditions in the Pacific may contribute to the formation and intensification of hurricanes this summer. These conditions suppress winds over the Atlantic, reducing the wind shear that hurricanes despise. The combination of La Niña and high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic is predicted to result in an extremely active hurricane season. Conversely, last year’s El Niño discouraged the formation of cyclones due to unfavorable wind conditions in the Atlantic.
Despite these factors, research suggests that climatic conditions near coastlines are becoming more favorable for storm intensification. It is crucial for experts like those at the University of Arizona to refine their forecasting abilities to better manage the growing risk to coastal populations. By improving seasonal forecasting, scientists aim to enhance their understanding and confidence in predicting and preparing for intensifying storms.
