A shift in the polling momentum has sparked debate among pundits and pollsters, with some sensing a change in favor of former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. On the Trump side, pollster Scott Rasmussen notes a “vibe shift” in the former president’s direction, particularly in battleground states.
Meanwhile, some analysts believe Harris has peaked and is now struggling to maintain her lead. Mark Halperin, a media pundit, suggests that Trump is likely to win the Sunbelt states and Pennsylvania, which could give him an advantage in the election. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s former pollster, Mark Penn, also agrees that Harris has peaked and that the polls show her losing ground in swing states.
Democratic pollster John Zogby, who’s also the author of the newly-released book Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, acknowledges that Trump is currently leading, but cautions against making predictions based on daily or weekly polls. Instead, he recommends looking at trend lines to gauge movement and picking a reliable pollster to follow. Zogby, a partner at John Zogby Strategies, urges poll consumers to be realistic about what polls can and cannot tell us.
“We pollsters need to get the word ‘predict’ out of our minds and vocabularies,” Zogby said, emphasizing that pollsters are not God and should not pretend to be. He recommends educating oneself about polling and being aware of the limitations of polls, which can be influenced by various factors such as turnout models and methodology.
Zogby’s advice is to focus on trend lines and to follow a single pollster to get a more accurate picture of the election. He also notes that the race is currently at equilibrium and may not break decisively in one direction until later. By being more nuanced in our understanding of polls, we can avoid making premature predictions and instead focus on providing informed analysis of the election.
