The automotive industry is facing a new challenge as it tries to adapt to the rapidly changing world of software and technology. Traditionally, the industry has moved at a slower pace than consumer electronics, giving manufacturers and suppliers ample time to support their products and ensure that software stays up-to-date. However, with the rise of “software-defined vehicles,” automakers are trying to compress their timeframe to be more like the consumer electronics industry.
This shift has significant implications for the industry, particularly when it comes to the concept of “headroom.” Automakers need to build in guarantees that their hardware will be able to handle new capabilities and updates in the future. However, the sunsetting of connectivity standards, which is controlled by telecommunications firms, poses a significant challenge.
Volkswagen, for example, has struggled to find a solution that meets its standards for reliability and safety for 3G vehicles. The company believes that 4G sunsets will not happen until after 2035, which means that most of its 4G vehicles will have the ability to connect for at least 10 years.
However, the industry as a whole has not made any significant commitments about how long it plans to keep updating its newer, software-enabled vehicles. This lack of clarity has raised concerns among experts, who warn that if vehicles lose the ability to update too soon, it could have a significant impact on resale value.
Philip Koopman, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University, notes that “whoever’s holding the bag gets a big hit in resale value” if vehicles become obsolete too quickly. Ray Cornyn, senior vice president and general manager of automotive processors at NXP, predicts that the auto software future will look similar to the present, with vehicles being designed for 10 to 15-year lifetimes and support from suppliers extending past the 15-year mark.
Rivian, an EV company that markets itself as a software-forward company, has taken a different approach. The company is talking with its suppliers about when its hardware will no longer be updatable and has estimated that its headroom will last for around seven years. However, this means that Rivian trucks and SUVs sold today may only continue to get software updates until 2031.
Experts remain skeptical about the industry’s ability to deliver on its promises, and many are calling for greater clarity and transparency about when and how vehicles will be updated. Stacey Higginbotham, a policy fellow at Consumer Reports, notes that “whatever anybody is saying right now, it will really have to be proven out in time.”
