COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND — Ben Mason, a freshman in aerospace engineering at the University of Maryland, acknowledges he was too young to recall the details of former President Donald Trump’s first term.
“I guess I wasn’t old enough or aware enough of the world to actually remember what happened,” said the 19-year-old who plans to vote for the first time in November.
“That happened when I was in middle school, so I would definitely have to go back and revisit everything, just to see what I actually remember and what I need to re-learn,” he added.
The Kansas City native suggested some memory gaps might stem from his parents shielding him from events during the Trump years.
“To an extent, they tried to protect me, but if I went to look for that information, they wouldn’t stop me,” he said. “I lean more liberally, so I think Joe Biden is the better option. But, I wish there was a better third option.”
Mason is one of the nearly 4.2 million new voters this year who were in middle school when Trump was first elected. According to Tufts University, about 41 million Gen Z Americans—ages 18 to 27—will be eligible to vote this year.
In 2020, young voters helped Joe Biden secure his first White House victory, with 61% of voters under 30 and 55% between 30 and 44 supporting him, according to an AP VoteCast survey. In 2016, young voters helped Trump win by supporting third-party candidates or staying home. Experts believe this demographic will play a crucial role in the 2024 presidential race.
Ella Murray, another freshman studying biology, said she hasn’t chosen a candidate yet and doesn’t remember much from Trump’s presidency.
“I was 13, so I wasn’t super involved in politics at that age,” Murray said on her way to a final exam on campus. “I think re-educating myself would be a good idea.”
Polling shows warning signs for Biden with young voters
Recent polls indicate Biden’s approval rating has dropped among young Americans, with Trump possibly gaining ground among this crucial group of voters who may not remember his presidency well.
While most surveys show Biden ahead among young voters, his lead is smaller compared to 2020. For instance, an NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll last month showed Trump leading Biden among millennial and Gen-Z voters by two points. Earlier, a Fox News poll found Trump leading Biden among voters under 30 by 18 points. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found voters aged 18-29 preferred Biden over Trump by just 3 percentage points, 29% to 26%.
There is ample evidence that young voters are dissatisfied with their choices this election. While 26% overall have a negative view of both Trump and Biden, 41% of young voters dislike both, according to a poll by Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. The same survey showed Biden leading Trump by more than 20 points, but less than half of young voters planned to vote this year.
Saaketh Vemuneri, a freshman in computer science, may be among those voters who choose to stay home if election day conflicts with his schedule.
“If I just can’t, if that day doesn’t work out for me, or I have something else to do, then yeah, I probably won’t vote,” he said. “I have a very open mind, so I don’t sway one way or another, so if I do decide to vote, I’ll probably end up voting for whoever I like most at the time,” he added.
While polling doesn’t always reflect reality, the results are an early warning for Democrats, who have leaned on younger voters in successful presidential campaigns.
“I’m definitely most worried about turnout, because young people aren’t excited about either candidate on any of the issues,” said Ashley Aylward, a senior researcher at the Democratic polling firm HIT Strategies.
“The young voter electorate has really changed the outcome of elections in the past few years between 2020 with the last Biden versus Trump election as well as midterms.”
Despite their influence, Aylward said young voters are “just overwhelmingly unmotivated because of their dissatisfaction and not feeling really excited about either candidate.”
A new poll released on Thursday by Democratic-aligned research group Blueprint found most young voters trust Biden over Trump except for two key issues: lowering prices and securing the border, where Trump held advantages.
“Young voters are much closer ideologically to Joe Biden than they are to Donald Trump,” said Evan Roth Smith, lead pollster for Blueprint. “But, it’s notable that with the top two issues of inflation and immigration, Donald Trump has an advantage, which is concerning.”
The poll indicated nearly every young voter cited economic concerns as top issues. Inflation and the economy were the most frequently prioritized issues, chosen by 73% and 70% of young voters.
Aylward believes Democrats and the Biden campaign must better communicate Biden’s accomplishments in addressing inflation and the economy to young voters.
“When we ask voters, ‘Do you feel your cost of living is better in the past four years versus the past eight years under the Trump administration?’ Gen Z voters really don’t know how to answer as they weren’t financially independent at the time,” Aylward explained.
“Additionally, many were college students or at home during COVID or entering the workforce but still being at home because of the pandemic. It’s a different scenario we haven’t navigated before,” she added.
Biden campaign seeks to refresh memories of Trump
The Biden campaign is focusing on reaching first-time voters and reminding them of what happened during the Trump years.
“Donald Trump poses a direct threat to young people — their economic futures, the ability to make their own health care decisions, to love who they love, and to live free from the threat of gun violence are all on the line in this election,” said Seth Schuster, a Biden campaign spokesman.
“The job of campaigns is to educate and remind voters of the stakes and unlike Trump’s basement campaign, the Biden-Harris campaign is working every day to talk to, mobilize, and earn the votes of young Americans.”
The Biden campaign launched its outreach effort and hired a youth engagement director in January, a position that was previously filled much later in the election cycle.
The strategy is to meet young voters on college campuses, social media, and places they frequent like music festivals, sporting events, and bars. The campaign has been releasing digital ads skewing towards young voters, including a $14 million ad campaign for May. It is also utilizing influencers to reach more young voters online who may not be politically involved.
In March, the campaign launched a national student organizing program to build campus infrastructure to reach first-time voters and prepare organizers for the fall. Furthermore, the campaign is outsourcing some organizing efforts to 15 leading youth vote groups, hiring hundreds of organizers and recruiting volunteers.
Trump’s team has fewer on-the-ground staffers but said they have paid staff in every battleground state. The Trump campaign cites recent polls as evidence young people are dissatisfied with Biden’s policies and are ready to consider different options.
“Joe Biden’s policies have created a more expensive, divided, and dangerous country for young Americans to grow up in, and that’s why he’s losing significant ground with this demographic in the polls,” said Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign. “On the contrary, President Trump will create a safe, prosperous, and free nation that helps all young people achieve their American Dream.”
Whether the investments by either campaign will pay off with first-time voters remains to be seen. Jaiden Liferiedge, a freshman studying computer science, said neither campaign has reached out to him or had much of a presence on campus.
“I occasionally see organizers for Kennedy here on campus, but that’s all I’ve seen,” Liferiedge said of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “Maybe it’s too early, but you would think if they want our votes they’d be out here.”
