A new statistical model released on Tuesday paints a bleak picture for Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris, suggesting that GOP nominee Donald Trump is the heavy favorite to win the election.
The model, developed by statistician Nate Silver, forecasts Trump with a 61.3-percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 38.1-percent chance. This means Trump has a more than three-in-five shot at victory, while Harris has a less than two-in-five shot. The forecast is based on a combination of polls and other data, and it tracks closely with prediction markets where people bet on the outcome.
Silver’s model had been paused after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but it has now been updated to reflect the new contest between Trump and Harris. While Harris improves upon Biden’s position, she does not significantly alter the trajectory of the race. Trump remains the clear favorite, and his chances of winning are even more pronounced in the electoral college.
According to Silver’s analysis, Harris is expected to perform slightly better in the popular vote, but she will struggle in the electoral college. In fact, Silver predicts that Harris will do worse in the electoral college compared to her popular vote performance than even Biden did. This could spell trouble for Democrats, who risk a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost them the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Silver’s model also breaks down each candidate’s chances in each state, and the results are dismal for Harris. Trump is favored to win in all the battleground states, including Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In some of these states, Trump’s chances of winning are as high as 70 percent.
While Harris is expected to give Democrats a fighting chance, her prospects are not as strong as they seem. Silver notes that Harris’s popular vote-Electoral College gap is slightly wider than Biden’s was in 2020, which could be a problem for Democrats. As more data and information become available, the picture will become clearer, but for now, it looks like Democrats are in serious trouble.
