A new poll from the Center for Working-Class Politics and YouGov, published by Jacobin Magazine, reveals a surprising trend in Pennsylvania: former President Donald Trump is gaining traction with working-class Americans and union workers in the state. The poll, which surveyed 1,086 eligible voters in Pennsylvania from September 24 to October 2, shows that Trump is leading among certain demographics, including union workers and those with manual jobs.
The poll found that Trump is preferred by current and former union workers in Pennsylvania, with 47.4 percent of respondents supporting him compared to 43.1 percent for President Joe Biden’s running mate, Kamala Harris. In contrast, Harris is favored by non-unionized workers, with 48.2 percent of respondents supporting her compared to Trump’s 42.8 percent.
Manual workers in Pennsylvania also seem to be shifting towards Trump, with 55.8 percent of respondents in this group planning to vote for him. In contrast, Harris leads among Pennsylvanians with a four-year college degree or more, with 50.9 percent of respondents supporting her compared to Trump’s 39.5 percent.
The poll also reveals a stark divide between those who are secure in their jobs and those who are facing job insecurity. Among Pennsylvanians who have been unfairly fired from their job in the past, 52.9 percent plan to vote for Trump, while 37.1 percent support Harris. Similarly, those facing job insecurity favor Trump by a wide margin, with 59.5 percent of respondents planning to vote for him.
In contrast, Pennsylvanians who are secure in their jobs favor Harris, with 47.5 percent of respondents supporting her. Similarly, those who have not lost their job recently also support Harris over Trump, with 46.9 percent of respondents planning to vote for her.
The poll suggests that the electorate in the Rust Belt is continuing to realign, with Republicans increasingly representing working and lower-middle-class Americans, while Democrats represent the upper-middle class and wealthy professionals. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.19 percentage points.
