Russia is withdrawing its peacekeeping forces from Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region and the Armenian border, as they are no longer necessary. This move comes as Armenia and Azerbaijan work towards a peace agreement and look towards Western development, diminishing Russia’s leverage in the region.
For years, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict served as Moscow’s main tool of influence in the South Caucasus. The conflict allowed Russia to maintain a divide and rule strategy and minimize Western involvement in the region. However, with the recent peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia’s influence has declined, prompting the withdrawal of its peacekeepers.
In response to losing influence in the region, Moscow has supported opposition forces in Armenia and attempted to overthrow Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has shown intentions of steering Armenia towards the West. This move by Moscow has caused tensions between the two countries, leading to calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Armenia’s remaining military base in Gyumry.
The Kremlin is now attempting to establish a puppet regime in Armenia by supporting billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, known as “Putin’s wallet”. Vardanyan’s ties to Moscow and alleged involvement in money laundering have raised concerns, with calls for sanctions against him from the EU Parliament.
In 2021, Vardanyan was appointed as governor of the Karabakh region, but was later arrested by Azeri troops on charges of financing terrorism. Moscow claims he is being unfairly treated and has even nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize. However, his detention by Baku is seen as a move to prevent him from inciting unrest in Armenia and potentially staging a coup to install a pro-Moscow regime.
Overall, Russia’s diminishing influence in the South Caucasus has led to strategic moves to maintain control in the region, including supporting proxy figures like Vardanyan. This situation highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the region.
