Russia announced snap tactical nuclear weapons exercises on Monday, increasing pressure on Western support for Ukraine. The exercises are focused on Russia’s southern military district, which is responsible for operations in Ukraine. This move is clearly meant to intimidate the West regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine.
It is important to note two key points. Firstly, this announcement is part of a series of escalating intimidation tactics by Russia. Recent weeks have seen covert sabotage attacks and plots across Europe, including an arson attack in London. Western intelligence services believe that more attacks are being planned. Russian President Vladimir Putin is particularly angry at French President Emmanuel Macron’s warning about deploying French forces to Ukraine in response to a Russian military breakthrough.
Secondly, Putin is also trying to intimidate the United Kingdom. After the Russian arson attack in London, the U.K. allowed Ukraine to use British weapons against Russia. In response, the Kremlin warned that Russia may target U.K. military sites beyond Ukraine. The U.K. plans to defend itself and activate NATO’s mutual defense stipulation if necessary.
Putin’s goal is to create fear among Western populations that their governments are taking risks in supporting Ukraine. He wants to pressure European leaders to placate Russia and provide breathing room for a major offensive in Ukraine.
In addition, China plays a role in this situation. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who is in France on a state visit, has shown support for Russia’s war efforts but views the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine as a red-line concern.
By scheduling these exercises during Xi’s visit to Paris, Putin is sending a message to European leaders that Xi’s influence has limits. While China may be upset by Putin’s actions, the Europeans and the U.S. must stand firm against Russian nuclear brinkmanship.
It is crucial for France, the U.K., the U.S., and their allies not to yield to Putin’s threats. Deterrence against Russian nuclear threats requires a greater nuclear threat against Russia and a strong resolve by the West. Additionally, the U.S. should urge China to explain how its commitment to cooperation with Europe aligns with supporting a partner threatening to use nuclear weapons against Europe.
