The declining birth rate in the United States is a major issue that federal bookkeepers are not addressing. The current trustees of Social Security and Medicare are relying on unrealistic assumptions about future birth rates, which could have disastrous financial consequences in the future.
While economic growth has provided a slight improvement in the financial standing of Social Security and Medicare, the declining birth rate is a more pressing concern. The fertility rate in the United States has reached an all-time low of 1.62 births per woman, yet the trustees are using a more optimistic rate of 1.9 for their projections. This discrepancy is significant, as it impacts the ability of the population to replace itself.
The decline in fertility rates is closely tied to the decline in marriage rates. Women who marry later or choose not to marry have fewer children, leading to an overall decrease in the birth rate. The trustees acknowledge this connection but fail to explain how they expect the trends to reverse.
Addressing the demographic decline through immigration is not a simple solution, as low-skill immigration can have negative economic consequences. It is essential for policymakers to recognize that family issues are directly linked to fiscal issues, and addressing the declining birth rate is crucial for the future financial health of the nation.
