In the world of presidential election polls, the results can vary widely from one survey to the next. Some polls show former President Donald Trump in the lead, while others give the edge to President Joe Biden. With so much conflicting information, it can be difficult for voters to make sense of it all.
One pollster, TIPP/Insights, believes they have found a unique solution to this problem: simply ask your neighbors who they plan to vote for. In their latest analysis, they uncovered five key indicators that suggest Trump may be ahead in the race.
While the headline numbers from their survey show Biden with 42% national support and Trump with 40%, TIPP’s deep dive into the data reveals some interesting insights. For example, among independent voters, Trump leads 35% to 30%, a significant shift from the previous election where independents favored Biden.
Additionally, Biden is losing ground among black and Hispanic voters. In 2020, African Americans gave 87% of their vote to Biden, but in 2024, that number has dropped to 59%. Similarly, Hispanic support for Biden has decreased from 65% to 47%.
When it comes to voter intensity and expectations, TIPP found that Trump has the edge. 64% of Trump supporters are more enthusiastic about their choice compared to 54% of Biden supporters. In terms of who voters think will win, Trump leads 37% to 34%.
But perhaps the most interesting finding from TIPP’s analysis is the question of who voters think their neighbor will vote for. According to a Brookings Institution report, this can be one of the best predictors of election outcomes. In TIPP’s data, a significant number of voters, including those who support Biden, believe that Trump will win. When asked how their neighbors are voting, 43% said Trump, 31% said Biden, and 25% were unsure.
Overall, TIPP’s analysis suggests that despite the close race in traditional polling numbers, there may be a hidden advantage for Trump based on voter attitudes and expectations. Asking your neighbor who they plan to vote for could provide some valuable insights into the true state of the race.
