Senate Democrats are facing a challenging year, with Republicans poised to take back control of the Senate in November. The retirement of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia has left a clear opening for Republican Gov. Jim Justice to flip the seat, and a single poll shows Justice ahead of his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, by 34 points.
In Montana, Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is trailing his Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, in the RealClearPolitics polling average by 7 points. However, beyond these two states, Democratic Senate candidates have generally outperformed their Republican opponents, as well as President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, by comfortable margins.
However, the past month has seen significant tightening in polls for Senate races in Ohio and the blue-wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Ohio, Republican challenger Bernie Moreno is now trailing incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) by just 1 point. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Republican businessman Mike McCormick has narrowed his gap with incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) to 1.6 points.
In Wisconsin, Republican candidate Eric Hovde has narrowed his gap with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) to 0.8 points. In Michigan, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers has come within 3 points of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the race for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).
To counter their increasing vulnerability, candidates like Casey and Baldwin have tried to tie themselves to President Trump on issues like trade and tariffs. However, a recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal suggests that these efforts may be doomed to fail.
According to James Johnson and Callum Hunter of polling firm J.L. Partners, the key to the election may lie with undecided voters, who account for 5% to 10% of the state’s electorate. Their internal research suggests that twice as many undecided voters in Senate races back President Trump over Vice President Harris.
While both parties are targeting these undecided voters, the pollsters warn that the Democrats’ efforts may be in vain. Citing a recent focus group, they noted that many undecided voters tend to be older, less-educated, and less-informed Trump supporters who will ultimately vote Republican down the ballot.
Current polls may not reflect this likelihood, but Johnson and Hunter’s internal polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania show that more than 60% of undecided Senate voters lean toward the Republican candidate when pushed for an answer. They believe that this could propel the Republican candidates in these states to victory or within reach of victory.
