Post-Debate Bump: Trump’s Prospects of Winning Popular Vote and Electoral College Vastly Improve

In recent weeks, former President Donald Trump’s momentum ahead of the 2024 election has been significantly boosted, according to multiple independent polls. Prior to the most recent debate between Trump and President Joe Biden, surveys consistently showed Trump holding the upper hand in a range of metrics, including national polls, swing state surveys, and key issue polls.

These trends have only intensified post-debate, with several polls now indicating Trump’s growing lead. Biden’s campaign has countered these findings with an internal poll that suggests his standing in the race remains unchanged, however, questions remain about the accuracy of this polling.

According to Nate Silver’s election model forecast from June 30, Trump now has a six-point advantage over Biden in the probability of winning the popular vote in November, a first-time prediction by Silver’s model. The last Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004 with 50.73 percent. Silver’s model also gives Trump a 68.4 percent chance of winning the electoral college, with Biden’s chances of reelection sitting at just 31 percent.

Several key polls have highlighted Trump’s growing advantage, including the Suffolk University poll, which found 41 percent of Democrat voters want Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, while only 51 percent want him to remain on the ticket. The YouGov poll saw 72 percent of voters believe Biden lacks the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, with another 72 percent wanting Biden to drop out of the race.

The New York Times/Siena poll recorded a three-point swing in favor of Trump, with the former President now leading Biden by six points.

The Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump also leading Biden by six points, the largest-ever lead in a Journal survey.

Internal polling from Open Labs, obtained through a leak, revealed a significant decline in Biden’s support, while the CNN poll placed Trump at 49 percent support, outpacing Biden’s 43 percent.