As the midterm elections approach, Montana’s Democratic Senator Jon Tester finds himself in a precarious position, trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by a significant margin in recent polls, with a gap of six to eight points. Typically, at this stage in the campaign, a candidate’s prospects would appear bleak, and Tester’s supporters might be bracing themselves for electoral defeat. However, the veteran senator is not ready to concede, and his campaign is banking on his personal rapport with voters to stay in the running.
In a bid to salvage his chances, Tester has been crisscrossing the state, attending union town halls and touting his achievements in securing federal funding for local projects, which have benefited union workers. While these efforts may not be enough to win over the bulk of the electorate, Tester is counting on the loyalty of union voters, many of whom have expressed appreciation for his work. Although many of these voters are expected to cast their ballots for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump next month, Tester is hopeful that some will still opt to vote for him.
Another factor Tester’s campaign is pinning its hopes on is the upcoming abortion referendum, which could potentially sway some voters to his side. However, the more pressing concern is what would happen if Tester were to lose. A Republican takeover of the Senate is all but certain, but the real concern for local Democrats is the potential long-term implications of a Tester loss.
Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines has described Tester as the last Democrat standing in the state, and his defeat would likely leave a void that would be difficult to fill. The state’s increasingly red hue suggests that a drought of Democratic representation could be on the horizon. Tester’s situation bears some resemblance to that of outgoing West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who, despite being a moderate, found himself increasingly at odds with the national Democratic Party. Manchin ultimately decided to leave the party, citing his desire to be more independent. While Tester is not yet ready to abandon ship, his campaign’s strategy of relying on his personal appeal may ultimately prove insufficient to overcome the electoral tide. The question is, will Tester be able to cling to power, or will he succumb to the forces of a rapidly shifting electoral landscape?
