Despite his insistence on staying in the race, President Joe Biden’s poll numbers remain dismal. Even with the chaos surrounding former President Donald Trump, including his conviction and an assassination attempt against him, Republicans cannot afford to take anything for granted. The swing state polls continue to show Trump’s advantage, with a recent Emerson College poll revealing the following results:
- Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
- Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
- Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
- Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
- North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
- Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
InsiderAdvantage also released a swing state poll, showing Trump leading Biden by 49-45 percent in Pennsylvania, 49-42 percent in Nevada, and 49-44 percent in Arizona.
Matt Towery, InsiderAdvantage’s CEO, highlighted the lack of a post-assassination attempt boost for Trump, but noted a substantial “enthusiasm gap” between Republicans and Democrats in each state. This gap suggests that Trump’s supporters are more motivated to vote than Biden’s.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolling has Trump ahead by +4.3 points in the top battleground states. Trump’s leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, at +3.4 and +1.6 points respectively, are significant, especially considering the crucial Senate races in both states.
Given reports that Biden may drop out of the race, RealClearPolling also released polling results between Trump and Kamala Harris. Trump leads in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, and also leads in Georgia and Florida.
Towery warned that Harris’ numbers could improve if she becomes the nominee, but current polls suggest that Trump performs better against her than against Biden. The odds of Trump becoming president remain high, while Biden’s chances have decreased.
In a surprise twist, Harris’ chances of becoming president have increased, with the Sports Handle tracker data showing a 18.6% chance of her becoming president, compared to Biden’s 12.2%. The odds of Trump becoming president remain at 73.5%.
Poly Market also shows an 87% chance that Biden drops out and a 6% chance of Biden winning the election. Trump’s chances remain high, at 66%, while Harris’ chances are at 20%.
