With the presidential election just around the corner, a flurry of polls has emerged, offering a glimpse into the highly contested battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. As the campaign heats up, key swing states have taken center stage, with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin emerging as crucial battlegrounds.
In Wisconsin, a recent AARP poll has revealed a neck-and-neck race, with Harris and Trump locked in a tight contest. The poll, conducted from September 11-14, shows Harris leading Trump by a slim 49-48 percent margin among likely voters, and 48-45 percent in the full field. However, Trump holds a 50-47 percent advantage among voters over 50, a demographic that consistently turns out to vote.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for likely voters and plus or minus 3.5 percent among older voters. Notably, the poll was conducted immediately after the ABC News debate, suggesting that Harris failed to gain significant momentum from the event. Despite having the best favorable rating, Harris’s numbers are evenly split, with 48 percent of voters holding a favorable view and 48 percent holding an unfavorable view.
Trump, on the other hand, has seen a modest improvement in his image, with a 46-51 percent favorable rating, up from a -10 rating in July. President Joe Biden fares worse, with a 41-55 percent favorable rating, although this represents an improvement from July.
The poll also highlights Trump’s strength among voters over 50, where he and Harris are nearly even in terms of image, while Biden trails by a net -10. Furthermore, Trump’s job performance approval rating is at a net favorable 51-48 percent, unlike Harris and Biden, who both have net negative ratings.
Another poll released by Quinnipiac University shows Harris leading Trump by a narrow 48-47 percent margin in Wisconsin among likely voters. While Harris holds wider leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan, her advantage in Wisconsin is within the margin of error.
The Quinnipiac poll also reveals that both Harris and Trump have net negative favorable ratings, with 46 percent of voters holding a favorable view of Harris and 48 percent holding an unfavorable view. Trump’s numbers are similarly split, with 46 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently leads by +3.0 in Wisconsin, while RealClearPolling shows her leading by +1.1 against Trump. As the election draws near, it is clear that the outcome will be far from certain, with Pennsylvania already warning that it may not be able to announce the winner on election night.
