Democratic pollsters are still struggling to accurately predict election outcomes, despite years of efforts to improve their models. The 2020 presidential election, in which Joe Biden narrowly defeated Donald Trump, exposed significant flaws in their projections. Now, with Kamala Harris at the helm of the Democratic Party, pollsters are warning that she faces an uphill battle against Trump in the 2024 election.
While Harris’s takeover has injected new energy into the Democratic base, pollsters are cautioning that her position is far from secure. In key swing states, she is currently tied with Trump, and some models suggest that the election is still Trump’s to lose. One of the main challenges facing Democratic pollsters is their continued struggle to account for low-propensity voters, who tend to turn out in larger numbers during presidential elections.
Pollsters are also conceding that the Democratic Party’s “Wisconsin project,” a strategy aimed at mobilizing voters in key battleground states, cannot be replicated in the current election cycle. The Electoral College system, which favors candidates who can build diverse coalitions, is also working against the Democrats. The recent endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, has further complicated the polling landscape. Kennedy’s supporters are likely to back Trump, which could give him a significant boost in the election.
