It is evident that the primary objective behind putting former President Donald Trump on trial in New York City and elsewhere is to brand him as a convicted felon before the 2024 election. However, early indications suggest that this strategy might be backfiring in multiple ways.
My colleague Jeremiah Poff highlighted the impact of the verdict on Trump’s fundraising numbers. Notably, about $52 million of the $141 million Trump’s campaign raised in May came within 24 hours of the verdict announcement. This amount is almost equivalent to what President Joe Biden raised in March and April combined.
The financial windfall is also benefiting GOP candidates further down the ballot. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) noted that his fundraising platforms have seen record highs. These impressive figures are addressing concerns about Trump and the Republican National Committee falling behind Biden and the Democratic National Committee in campaign funds.
However, the polling data is of greater significance. The intent behind the trial is to tarnish Trump’s reputation among voters by branding him a convicted felon throughout the election cycle. Yet early returns indicate minimal changes in polling, a fact that is causing panic among Biden’s allies.
The latest poll from Morning Consult, conducted from May 31 (the date of the verdict announcement) to June 2, showed Trump’s support steady at 44%, consistent with previous months. Conversely, Biden’s support dropped 2 points to 43%, which is in line with his recent polling trends. Rasmussen Reports showed Trump down 2 points but still leading with a 48%-43% margin.
Morning Consult ballot test numbers over last month:
5/3-5: Trump 44, Biden 43
5/10-12: Trump 44, Biden 43
5/17-19: Trump 44, Biden 43
5/26-28: Trump 44, Biden 42
5/31: Biden 45, Trump 44
5/31-6/2: Trump 44, Biden 43— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 4, 2024
As of June, it seems that the trial will not significantly alter public opinion about Trump. This isn’t surprising; Trump has dominated media attention since 2015. Over the past nine years, people have formed and solidified their opinions of him, and a hush money/campaign finance trial is unlikely to change those perceptions.
This scenario could be detrimental for Biden. Increasing GOP voter and donor enthusiasm at a time when Biden had a fundraising lead and was facing enthusiasm issues within his base is undeniably a setback for his campaign. There’s a potential that this situation could backfire for Democrats more severely than the 2020 impeachment of Trump, which they largely ignored during the campaign.
