A recent report by former ABC News journalist Mark Halperin sparked concerns that Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign is struggling. Halperin cited “robust private polling” and conversations with sources on both sides, saying Harris is “in a lot of trouble” and that Pennsylvania is a tough state for her. Additionally, Wisconsin and Michigan are reportedly looking worse for Harris than before. Trump’s campaign, on the other hand, is “extremely bullish” on Trump’s chances, according to Halperin.
Trump recently released the results of his campaign’s most recent swing-state polling, showing him ahead in every state, albeit by small margins. He was up by 3 in Arizona, 5 in Georgia, 1 in Michigan, 3 in Nevada, 1 in North Carolina, 1 in Pennsylvania, and 1 in Wisconsin. Trump’s private polling showed results slightly better for him than the current RealClearPolitics average of swing-state polls, but not significantly so. The results were also consistent with some recent media polls that have shown Trump’s position improving in the states.
Nationally, Trump appears to be gaining ground against Harris. A new NBC News poll showed Trump ahead of Harris by a single point, 47-46 percent, when fringe candidates are included in the field. In a one-on-one matchup, the two were tied, 48-48 percent. This is a significant shift from the last NBC poll in September, which showed Harris leading Trump 49-44 percent. The NBC poll attributed Trump’s rise to Republicans returning to support him after last month’s debate and a subsequent polling deficit, as well as a favorable assessment of Trump’s presidency. Harris’s popularity, on the other hand, has declined compared to a month ago.
Reports have also emerged of growing concerns within the Harris campaign. A CNN report noted that Democrats are increasingly anxious about Harris’s fate and that her campaign may be stuck in neutral. Several other reports have offered similar assessments. Amidst this, Trump’s top campaign managers released a memo arguing that Harris experienced a brief period of rising acceptance and support after Biden dropped out of the race, but that she has largely treaded water since then. They pointed out that Harris’s internal data shows she made no real gains in her image or ballot standing against Trump, despite spending $241 million on advertising.
The Trump memo suggests that Harris’s campaign has been stuck in a state of limbo since July, when she briefly enjoyed a surge in popularity. The memo argues that the normal resting state of the race is for Trump to be ahead, but that Harris has enjoyed three brief periods of momentum since becoming the Democratic candidate. The first bump came when Biden dropped out of the race, the second when the Democratic convention took place, and the third when Harris debated Trump. However, the joy ride that followed each of these events has faded, and there are no scheduled events in the coming weeks that could restart the momentum. If this is the case, the Trump campaign may be right that Harris is in trouble, and that Trump is poised to win the election. However, it’s also possible that a new trend could emerge that would change the dynamics of the race. For now, at least, the trend appears to be shifting in Trump’s favor.
