A recent series of polls conducted by Siena College, the New York Times, and the Philadelphia Inquirer reveals that Republican Senate candidates are in close competition with vulnerable Democrats in crucial battleground states. The polls from Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, released on Monday, show Democrats leading but Republicans within five points in three states and single digits in Wisconsin.
In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads with 45% compared to former News Anchor Kari Lake’s 41%. In Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen has a 40% lead over Retired Army Captain Sam Brown’s 38%. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey is ahead with 46% while Businessman Dave McCormick has 41%. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads with 49% over Businessman Eric Hovde’s 40%.
The polls were conducted between April 28 and May 9 with margins of error ranging from ±3.6 to ±4.6 percentage points. Despite the close competition, former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, indicating a trend of ticket-splitting.
Trump leads Biden in Arizona by 49% to 42%, with Gallego having more support from Biden supporters than Lake has from Trump supporters. In Nevada, Trump leads by 50% to 38%, but Brown has more support from Trump supporters than Rosen has from Biden supporters. In Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead with 47% to 44%, and McCormick has more support from Trump supporters than Casey has from Biden supporters.
It is important to note that surveys were not conducted in Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Virginia, or West Virginia, where Republicans also have opportunities to win Democrat seats.
