A recent poll conducted by Emerson has found that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow margin of two points in the crucial state of Pennsylvania.
According to the survey, 49% of voters in the Keystone state support Trump, while 48% back Harris. When undecided voters are factored in, Trump’s lead expands to 51% to 49%. The poll also reveals that third-party candidates have minimal support, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering just 3% of the vote.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted on August 13 and 14, shows that independents are leaning towards Trump by a margin of three points, 48% to 45%. However, suburban voters are backing Harris by the same margin, 50% to 47%.
Younger voters are overwhelmingly supporting Trump, with 58% of those under 40 backing the former president, compared to 40% for Harris. Roman Catholics are also favoring Trump by a significant margin of 21 points, 60% to 39%.
On the other hand, non-believers are strongly backing Harris, with 84% supporting her, compared to just 13% for Trump.
The latest poll marks a slight decline in Trump’s lead over Harris, who has been gaining momentum in recent weeks. Last month, Trump led Harris by six points, 51% to 45%.
Despite the slight decline, Trump’s numbers are still stronger than they were against his previous opponents, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. In fact, on the same day in 2016, Clinton was leading Trump by 9.2 points in Pennsylvania, a state he ultimately won.
The RealClearPolitics average poll of Pennsylvania polls shows a tied race, with both Trump and Harris at 47.9% support. However, Trump has led in four of the polls counted in the average, while Harris has led in three, and one poll was tied.
As the election season heats up, it remains to be seen whether Harris can sustain her momentum, or if Trump’s numbers will continue to hold steady.
