Early voting is underway in Kentucky ahead of the state’s primary election on Tuesday, featuring several high-profile races as voters determine their November ballot preferences.
All six House districts are up for election in Kentucky, with most incumbents not facing stiff challenges. Voters will also select their favored presidential candidate, a decision that could indicate former President Donald Trump’s standing as he enters the sixth week of his criminal trial in New York.
President Joe Biden may also encounter resistance, with some Democratic voters possibly withholding their support due to his stance on the Israel conflict.
Here are three notable aspects to watch as voting takes place on Tuesday:
Kentucky as a Bellwether for Trump’s Reelection Efforts
Despite its strong Republican leanings, Kentucky has historically been a bellwether for presidential races. The recent reelection of Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) could indicate challenges for Trump’s campaign.
Kentucky’s off-year governor’s race has been a predictor of presidential outcomes in recent years. In 2011, Democrat Steve Beshear won the governorship one year before then-President Barack Obama’s reelection. In 2015, Republican Matt Bevin’s unexpected gubernatorial victory preceded Trump’s 2016 win. Bevin was later defeated by Andy Beshear in 2019 before Biden defeated Trump nationally in 2020.
Kentucky’s closed primaries, where only registered Republicans can vote in the GOP primary, will gauge Trump’s support among his base. However, Trump faces challenges as some Republicans have cast votes for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has suspended her campaign.
In last week’s primaries, Haley received 20% of the vote in Maryland and 17.8% in Nebraska, notable for a candidate who dropped out over two months ago.
Biden Confronts Growing Intraparty Dissent
Despite not having a primary challenger, Biden must address a rising number of Democratic voters opting not to support his candidacy, voting “uncommitted” instead.
On Tuesday’s ballot, his opponents will include author Marianne Williamson, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), and “uncommitted.”
Biden has faced similar dissent in about two dozen other states, where hundreds of thousands have voted for no candidate.
These Democratic voters are protesting Biden’s handling of the U.S. response to the Gaza war, demanding an immediate ceasefire and cessation of military aid. Continued dissatisfaction could pose problems for Biden as he prepares to face Trump in a tight general election.
Democratic strategists close to Biden’s campaign told the Truth Voices in March that the party base would rally behind Biden when faced with the alternative of Trump in the general election.
“The president is aware of the uncommitted campaign voters,” said Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt. “He shares their goal of ending the violence and achieving lasting peace, and he is working tirelessly to that end.”
Thomas Massie Faces GOP Primary Challenge After Seeking to Oust Speaker Johnson
While most House primaries are uncompetitive, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is being challenged by attorney Eric Deters, a strong Trump supporter.
Massie’s challenge follows his push to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) from his leadership role, an effort that failed. Massie also faced criticism from conservatives last year for supporting Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) over Trump for the GOP presidential nomination.
Massie is under attack from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has spent about $328,675 on TV ads criticizing his votes on Israel-related legislation, arguing he obstructs U.S. aid to Israel.
The advertisements aim not only to influence the primary but also to diminish Massie’s statewide reputation should he consider a Senate run in 2026.
Nevertheless, Massie is likely to succeed. Deters hasn’t reported raising campaign funds as of the last filing deadline, and Massie was reelected with 65% of the vote in 2022.
