In the tightly contested Arizona Senate race, Democrats received encouraging news on Friday as the odds shifted in their favor. The nonpartisan election forecaster, CookPoliticalReport, changed their prediction from a “toss-up” to “lean Democrat” due to the candidate quality of Republican front-runner Kari Lake against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) for the seat being vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).
The analysis by CookPoliticalReport highlighted concerns within the Republican party regarding Lake’s electability, given her ties to former President Donald Trump and previous claims about fraudulent elections.
Despite the competitive nature of the race, the ratings now place Arizona as less of a battleground compared to other states like Montana, Ohio, and Nevada. With West Virginia’s open seat likely to shift from blue to red, the Republicans only need to flip one more seat to regain control of the Senate.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another nonpartisan election forecaster, also rated the Arizona Senate race as “lean Democrat,” aligning with CookPoliticalReport’s updated prediction.
Recent polling indicated Gallego having an advantage, although the race remains within the margins of error. Both candidates have launched significant ad campaigns, with Gallego investing $19 million and a super PAC backing him with an additional $23 million. Lake’s campaign has also put $10 million towards advertising.
The Senate race in Arizona continues to be closely watched as both parties vie for control of the chamber.
