As the 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump dominates headlines, a quieter yet equally pivotal battle is unfolding for control of the nation’s state legislatures. With numerous chambers up for grabs, Republicans and Democrats are intensely competing for every local seat.
Currently, Republicans hold a 28-20 advantage in controlling state legislatures, with two states boasting split chambers. However, Democrats are wary of a potential repeat of 2020, when they won the White House and Congress but lost ground in local races. To counter this, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) is working to meet its $60 million fundraising goal, still $26.2 million shy of its target. Vice President Harris has contributed $2.5 million to the DLCC from her campaign.
Six states are poised for potential flips in one or both of their legislative chambers:
- Arizona: Control of both chambers is a toss-up, despite Democrats not having held a majority in over two decades. A ballot measure to enshrine abortion access into the state constitution may propel Democrats to victory. Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) has already set records for vetoing Republican-led legislature bills.
- Pennsylvania: Alongside Arizona, Pennsylvania is expected to witness a highly competitive fight for its upper and lower chambers. Democrats seek to leverage abortion as a driving message to add to their state House majority and potentially gain one in the state Senate. The Republican State Leadership Committee has invested $6.2 million in the state.
- New Hampshire: Democrats eye a ripe opportunity to take control of the state’s legislature, particularly the House, which boasts 400 members. The DLCC has invested $1 million in the state, where Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) is not seeking reelection, potentially allowing Democrats to snag a trifecta.
- Wisconsin: Republicans hold a slight advantage in both chambers, but Gov. Tony Evers’s (D-WI) redistricting efforts have shifted the landscape. The state Assembly is a coin toss, with Democrats needing to flip several seats to gain control.
- Michigan and Minnesota: While neither state is holding Senate elections this cycle, the Minnesota Senate is up for grabs in a special election. In Michigan, the House is highly competitive, with Republicans needing to flip two seats to win control. The Michigan House Republican Campaign Committee President, Rep. Bill G. Schuette, believes the presidential election will aid Republicans in taking the chamber.
- Kansas and Georgia: Although Democrats have limited chances of taking control, they aim to break up the Republican supermajority in Kansas and prevent one in Georgia. The DLCC is highlighting candidates like Ashwin Ramaswami in Georgia, who has raised over $700,000 to flip a suburban Atlanta district. In Kansas, Democrats are running for as many seats as possible, seeking to broaden Gov. Laura Kelly’s (D-KS) influence.
