Tuesday’s Nebraska congressional and presidential primaries could have a significant impact on the 2024 election, particularly in the 2nd Congressional District. Represented by Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), this district’s delegate rules could play a crucial role in deciding whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins in November.
Nebraska, along with Maine, awards electoral delegates proportionally, which allowed Biden to win one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes in 2020 by securing the most votes in Bacon’s district. Recognizing the potential impact of this district, Gov. Jim Pillen and Republican lawmakers pushed for a “winner-take-all” system to prevent Biden from claiming a delegate.
Despite efforts to change the system, legislators declined, sticking with awarding two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one vote to the winner in each congressional district. The 2nd District, a swing district, remains crucial, with the potential to vote for Biden in 2024.
Bacon, who supports the winner-take-all system, is favored to win the GOP primary against Dan Frei. The race is expected to be competitive, with Bacon emphasizing his ability to appeal to both red and blue voters. If successful, Bacon will face Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who lost to Bacon narrowly in 2022.
Internal polling suggests a close race between Vargas and Bacon, reflecting the competitive nature of the district. Bacon remains confident in his chances, dismissing Democratic polls as intentionally skewed.
