As the US presidential election draws near, both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are facing signs of waning enthusiasm for their respective campaigns. With less than two months to go until Election Day, the outcome will largely depend on which candidate can muster the most voter enthusiasm and drive turnout.
For Harris, the Democratic National Convention failed to provide the expected boost to her campaign. Despite avoiding the chaos of the 1968 convention, the lack of a significant bounce in the polls is a worrying sign for Democrats. Election analyst Nate Silver noted that Harris’s initial surge in popularity following Biden’s withdrawal from the race may have been inevitable, and that the campaign has yet to find its footing. The decision to bypass Governor Josh Shapiro for the vice presidential nomination in favor of Governor Tim Walz is also being questioned.
On the other hand, Trump’s campaign is facing internal divisions, with several prominent Republicans secretly rooting for Harris to win. According to Politico, three main GOP camps are quietly backing Harris, each hoping that a Trump defeat would allow their faction to regain control of the party. Anti-abortion Republicans are frustrated with Trump’s softened stance on the issue, while war hawks and free traders are dissatisfied with his non-interventionist and protectionist policies, respectively.
Harris is also struggling to maintain support in key swing states, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan. Silver pointed to a steady decline in Harris’s numbers in these states, which could prove disastrous for her campaign. In Pennsylvania, a CNN poll shows Trump leading among white voters without college degrees, while in Georgia, Trump’s support among the same demographic has jumped to 71%.
Meanwhile, a study by Goldman Sachs economists has predicted that Trump’s economic plan would harm the economy, reducing GDP and increasing the deficit. The Trump campaign has dismissed the report, citing the economists’ failure to predict the economic growth during Trump’s previous term.
Harris is also facing criticism for her handling of the Gaza conflict, with pro-Palestinian demonstrators threatening to withhold their votes. Her failure to distinguish herself from Biden’s policy has dampened the enthusiasm of activists, who had hoped for a different approach. Campus protests could feed into the Republican narrative that the Democratic Party is the party of chaos, affecting swing voters.
The attempted assassination of Trump in July has largely faded from the national scene, with Google trends showing little engagement on the topic by September. Whether the Trump campaign can refocus attention on the issue remains to be seen, as the events of that day are still the subject of a congressional investigation.
