The 2024 presidential election has taken a dramatic turn, transforming from a likely GOP victory to a nail-biting contest, after Vice President Kamala Harris stepped in as the Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s departure.
With the recent addition of Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, the revamped Democratic ticket is gaining momentum ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. The latest polls and donor trends are shifting in their favor, with Harris raising a record-breaking $310 million in July and an additional $36 million in 24 hours after announcing Walz as her vice president.
However, the GOP is not backing down, with former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, launching a two-pronged attack on the Democratic ticket. Vance has been touring battleground states, often appearing in the same locations as Harris and Walz, while criticizing them for avoiding press scrutiny. Meanwhile, Harris and Walz have been taking jabs at the GOP ticket during their kickoff tour in Philadelphia.
Trump recently announced a surprise press conference, where he blasted Harris for not taking press questions and challenged her to three debates. Harris agreed to only one, setting the stage for a contentious campaign season.
In light of the recent developments, Truth Voices has reassessed the battleground states, ranking the top seven most challenging for Harris to win.
- North Carolina
Despite having popular Gov. Roy Cooper on their side, the Tarheel State remains a tough nut to crack for Democrats. Cooper’s decision not to join Harris’s ticket has raised concerns about the state’s vulnerability, given its last Democratic win was in 2008. Trump has already begun ad spending in the state and held a rally in Charlotte, where he lambasted Harris as a “threat to democracy.”
- Michigan
Last week, Truth Voices ranked Michigan as the seventh-hardest battleground for Harris to win, citing a RealClearPolitics poll average that showed Harris leading Trump in the state by two percentage points and a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey that showed Trump trailing Harris by 11 percentage points, 53% to 42%.
But events this week have brought back to the forefront tensions in the Democratic Party over U.S. support for Israel as it battles Hamas. The issue came to a head during a Harris rally in Detroit, where pro-Palestinian activists interrupted the event. Harris’s response, “If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that,” has sparked concerns about the party’s unity and its impact on the campaign.
Detroit is home to a significant number of Arab-American and Muslim voters who could organize an anti-Harris campaign if the tensions surrounding the Middle East war continue.
- Pennsylvania
Gov. Josh Shapiro’s exclusion from Harris’s running mate shortlist has raised questions about his ambition. Nevertheless, Shapiro has pledged to campaign for the Democratic ticket, aiming to deliver the state’s 19 electoral votes. The state has seen significant ad spending, with Harris and Trump each investing millions in the Keystone State.
Harris’s willingness to skip Shapiro also suggests her campaign’s comfort that the state is winnable. A FiveThirtyEight poll average has Harris leading Trump, 45.5% to 44.5%, in the Keystone State. But a RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading Harris, 48.4% to 46.6%.
- Arizona
Harris’s decision to choose Walz as her running mate over Sen. Mark Kelly has sparked hope among Democrats that the sunbelt battlegrounds are within reach. New polling suggests Arizona may be a toss-up, with Harris holding a narrow lead over Trump. The Harris campaign has touted endorsements from border town mayors, including Arizona Mesa Mayor John Giles. The Cook Political Report rated Arizona as one of the three states that had changed from “Lean Republican” to a “toss-up,” a worrying sign for the Trump campaign.
- Nevada
Harris leads Trump by two percentage points in Nevada, according to a recent Bloomberg poll. However, the state remains a toss-up, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Trump leading Harris by four percentage points. Harris is set to make her seventh visit to the state, capitalizing on the momentum and her strong support among Latino voters.
- Georgia
Georgia has become a crucial battleground state, with the Cook Political Report changing its rating from “Lean Republican” to a “toss-up.” This follows the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, which also moved Georgia back to the “toss-up” category. Harris can rely on the support of Sens. Jon Osoff and Raphael Warnock to help her keep the state blue. Trump’s recent attacks on Gov. Brian Kemp may not bode well for his chances in the state.
- Wisconsin
Harris and Trump are virtually tied in the Badger State, according to a recent Marquette University Law School poll. But in a RealClearPolitics average, Harris is narrowly leading Trump by 0.5% At a campaign rally in Eau Claire, Harris and Walz addressed a crowd of 12,000 supporters, with Walz highlighting his midwestern credentials. The state remains a key battleground, with both campaigns vying for its electoral votes.
