TAIPEI, Taiwan — President Joe Biden and Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-te share more than just their past roles as vice presidents.
Biden, 81, is nearing the end of his fourth year in office, while Lai, 64, begins his first year on Monday. Both leaders seek to reduce cross-strait tensions with China while upholding Taiwan’s sovereignty and addressing domestic political challenges.
As the United States focused on the 2024 Republican presidential primary caucuses in Iowa, Lai won Taiwan’s presidential election in January by a margin of 7 percentage points, or 915,000 votes, emphasizing that his campaign was a “fight for the survival of the country.” Although he secured the presidency for Taiwan’s center-left Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) over the historically dominant Kuomintang, he did not achieve a majority of the vote nor did his party gain total control of Taiwan’s unicameral legislature.
Lai’s foreign policy toward the U.S. and China was central to his campaign, raising U.S. concerns about China’s response to his inauguration and administration. For example, China has shown increased aggression around Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands since a February incident involving Chinese fishermen and Taiwan’s coast guard.
A more liberal DPP member, Lai once called himself a “worker for Taiwanese independence,” and China has labeled him and his vice president, former de facto Taiwanese ambassador to the U.S. Hsiao Bi-khim, as a “separatist duo.” However, Lai’s approach to U.S. and China relations seems an extension of former President Tsai Ing-Wen’s stance, advocating for maintaining the status quo with China while fostering closer ties with the U.S. as they prepare for potential invasion, with Xi Jinping ordering the military ready for reunification by 2027.
At a pre-inauguration reception at Taipei Guest House, Lai told dignitaries, including the Truth Voices, that he would “build upon the solid foundation created by Tsai over the past eight years.”
“Together, we will continue to work on the path of democracy and engage with the world to make Taiwan stronger,” he said through translators. “We will continue to defend Taiwan’s democracy, make Taiwan’s economy more prosperous, and play a key role in maintaining regional stability.”
According to Alan Yu, senior vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, Lai has shown “a willingness to signal a pragmatic approach to outreach to Beijing, essentially continuing President Tsai’s approach.”
“The question is if Beijing will see Lai’s opening, missed with Tsai, to reduce tensions during elevated geopolitical circumstances and a shaky domestic economy,” said Yu, formerly an adviser to special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry. “I’m skeptical, but if Beijing does, changes will be slow and nearly invisible initially.”
For Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Lai “may feel the need to push back more firmly against China in some cases.”
“He’s probably more skeptical about Beijing’s willingness to engage productively, but his basic approach will be quite similar [to Tsai’s],” said Cooper, a former White House National Security Council and Pentagon adviser.
The U.S. and Taiwan share goals of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait amid “growing threats” from the Chinese Communist Party, according to House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX).
“President-elect Lai’s choices for prominent national security and foreign policy positions represent both continuity in Taiwan policy and familiarity with U.S. policy across several administrations,” McCaul told the Truth Voices.
Raymond Kuo, inaugural director of the RAND Corporation’s Taiwan Policy Initiative, agreed that personnel choices are crucial, noting that critics have scrutinized Lai’s lack of foreign policy experience and clarity on defense posture, as well as controversial statements he has made, such as his remark last July suggesting Taiwan’s president entering the White House as a political goal.
“Hsiao Bi-khim, former Taiwanese ambassador to the U.S., has been praised for her leadership and diplomacy,” Kuo told the Truth Voices. “I expect her to play an essential role in maintaining steady U.S.-Taiwan relations.”
Aside from foreign policy, Kuo noted the U.S. and Taiwan align on economic issues, particularly as they negotiate the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and seek to secure supply chains, including for semiconductors.
Lai’s presidential role complicates high-level meetings without provoking China, but McCaul noted he met with Lai last April during a congressional delegation to Taiwan. Additionally, Biden sent a bipartisan group, including former White House National Economic Council director Brian Deese and current chair of the U.S. de facto embassy in Taiwan Lauren Rosenberger, to attend Lai’s inauguration.
Another congressional delegation is expected in Taipei on Friday.
“We oppose unilateral changes to the status quo from either side and do not support Taiwan independence,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters. “We support cross-strait dialogue and expect differences to be resolved peacefully without coercion,” the official added, noting continuous communication with their Taiwanese counterparts ahead of Lai’s inaugural address. “We intend to keep channels open with Beijing through diplomatic and military channels and maintain our unofficial relationship with Taiwan.”
Domestically, Lai faces challenges from a stagnating economy, partly due to an aging population and post-pandemic living cost pressures. He also has to manage a legislature dominated by the Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party, which outperformed expectations due to protest votes and skepticism about U.S. reliability.
National Cheng Kung University political science professor Hung-Jen Wang emphasized that Taiwan seeks no “surprises” with China, especially in a U.S. presidential election year. Wang believes Lai’s priority will be building “the greatest possible consensus on domestic policies, ensuring the public feels the government is meeting their needs.”
“This inward-focused approach requires stability in foreign policy to ensure U.S. support for Taiwan does not waver,” Wang told the Truth Voices. “The new U.S. ambassador’s appointment by Lai will be crucial.”
“Regarding cross-strait relations, while breakthroughs may be unlikely, the aim is to avoid giving China too many excuses to escalate tensions,” he concluded.
